The Denver Broncos come to the Big Easy for a showdown with the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football.
The “Sean Payton Bowl” will feature two rookie quarterbacks — including Bo Nix — and my Broncos vs. Saints predictions explain why Nix will have Courtland Sutton in his sights all night long.
Find out more in my NFL picks for October 16.
Broncos vs Saints TNF prediction
My best betCourtland Sutton Over 45.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysisIn his six starts as a pro, Bo Nix only has eyes for Courtland Sutton — at least, that’s the way it seems.
The Denver Broncos veteran receiver leads the team in targets (47) with a 21-pass gap between Sutton and the second-most targeted player. He’s snatched 21 of those balls for 277 yards, including four receptions on six targets for 53 yards in the loss to the L.A. Chargers last weekend.
That was Sutton’s highest-rated outing of the season so far, according to PFF, and he’s benefitting from the growth of Nix, who is starting to get more comfortable pushing passes downfield after playing conservatively in his first few outings.
Sutton has been able to hit those home run plays most weeks, with a reception of 20+ yards in each of the past five games, and now faces a New Orleans Saints secondary giving up the third most “big plays” with 20 passes of 20+ yards allowed — five of which have gone for 40 or more.
New Orleans does have a solid defense, but producing offense could be a big issue Thursday. With a rookie passer in Spencer Rattler, multiple skill players questionable, and the offensive line in shambles, the Saints are hard pressed to move the football against a Denver defense ranked among the NFL elite.
With NOLA unable to advance, the Broncos offense will get additional touches. Denver is currently 24th in plays per game but does run an up-tempo attack sitting ninth in no-huddle usage. More snaps mean a higher output from Nix and Sutton.
Adding to the potential for a positive passing night from the Broncos is the venue, with this game being played on the fast track of the Superdome — the first time Nix has played indoors this season. As for Sutton, he hasn’t played inside much in his career, but when he has, his yards per target spike to 9.1 vs. just 7.94 outdoors.
Player projections for Sutton are all north of 50 yards receiving, with a ceiling of 56 yards. My number is a touch shorter at 54 yards, but that’s more than enough to surpass his receiving yards prop total of 45.5 Over/Under.
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Broncos vs Saints TNF same-game parlay
Courtland Sutton 50+ receiving yardsJavonte Williams anytime touchdownDenver Broncos moneyline
+563 at FanDuel
Sutton is Bo Nix’s favorite option, and player models all sit north of 50 yards for the Broncos’ WR1.
Williams goes against an exhausted Saints defense that has trouble stopping the run.
With all the injuries to the Saints, Sean Payton should pick apart his former club on the back of the Broncos’ stingy defense.
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Broncos vs Saints odds
Broncos vs Saints live odds
Broncos vs Saints opening odds
- Spread: Denver +1.5 (-110) | New Orleans -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Denver +110 | New Orleans -130
- Over/Under: Over 37.5 (-110) | Under 37.5 9-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Broncos vs Saints spread and Over/Under analysis
- Books opened New Orleans as a 1.5-point home favorite but with injuries stacking up on the short week and the Saints playing three games in a 10-day window, the spread jumped the fence and sits as high as NOLA +2.5.
- This total hit the board at 37.5 points and has been bet down to 36.5 O/U.
- New Orleans is not only without quarterback Derek Carr, but WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, as well as RB Alvin Kamara and TE Taysom Hill, are questionable. Denver’s biggest injury is top CB Patrick Surtain (concussion).
- According to Covers Consensus, 65% of picks are taking the Saints while 65% of picks on the total are siding with the Over.
