The San Francisco 49ers enter the Week 4 odds as massive 14.5-point home favorites in a divisional game vs. Joshua Dobbs and the Arizona Cardinals with a total of 44. The 49ers are a perfect 3-0 while the Cardinals are a few bad beats away from being perfect themselves.
When it comes to the NFL odds, there has been some resistance to the 49ers being double-digit favorites. With how well the Cardinals have played in the first half this year, can an underrated Dobbs lead the two-TD dogs to a first-half score and top a modest 1H team total of 6.5?
Here are my free NFL picks for Cardinals vs. 49ers on Sunday, October 1.
Cardinals vs 49ers odds
Cardinals vs 49ers predictions
The Arizona Cardinals are 3-0 SU on the first-half moneyline and have a plus-34 point differential in the first 30 minutes of each game this year. Those numbers have come vs. some decent competition in the Cowboys last week, the Commanders in the opener, and the Giants in Week 2. Those aren’t “nobody” defenses.
Joshua Dobbs and Jonathan Gannon deserve much respect. Dobbs has been with the offense for just a month and Gannon and his OC/play-caller Drew Petzing have looked great with their early scripting and game-planning.
Arizona ranks in the Top 7 in 1H time of possession and is tied with Buffalo for the No.7 EPA/play in the first half. A lot of this comes down to Dobbs, who has gotten up to speed as fast as one could. He currently ranks second in CPOE at +7.9%, is getting the ball out quickly with the No. 2 time to throw, and has the No. 9 passer rating through three weeks.
His weapons might be overlooked, too. Marquise Brown has TDs in back-to-back games, Rondale Moore ripped off a 45-yard rushing TD last week, and rookie Michael Wilson can get deep and hauled in a 69-yard reception vs. Dallas last week. James Conner is also an end-zone finder with 24 TDs in 31 games with the Cards.
The elephant in the room is this San Francisco 49ers defense. Through three weeks, it’s allowed 42 points with 30 of those coming in the first half. Every team has put up at least six points in the first half vs. the Niners, comprised of the Giants, Rams, and Steelers. Not exactly Top-7 offenses.
It’s seven points in a divisional game. This 14.5-point spread has certainly pushed down the Cardinals’ team totals but Dobbs has been competent vs. good defenses and Gannon and Petzing have drawn up some very good scripts early. Things might get ugly in the second half, but I’m not fading the Cardinals again despite the task at hand.
My best bet: Cardinals first-half team total Over 6.5 (-132 at Pinnacle)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Cardinals vs 49ers same-game parlay
ARI 1H TT Over 6.5Purdy Under 225.5 passing yardsUnder 44.5
+600 at bet365
Seven points isn’t a lot to ask for in a first half where the offense has time to game plan and script out the first few possessions. Let’s not forget that Gannon game-planned against the 49ers just five games ago and is very familiar with this club from his time in Philly.
Brock Purdy’s Under passing yards is heavily factoring in a positive game script as a double-digit favorite. San Francisco can lean on the run and eat the clock vs. a weak Arizona run defense. Purdy also gets most of his passing yards after the catch, which is a little misleading.
Both teams play slow and the Niners know how to milk a late clock better than most teams.
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Cardinals vs 49ers spread and Over/Under analysis
The Cardinals were as low as +10.5 on the summer look-ahead but were 14-point dogs as of Sunday and reopened at a similar number despite knocking off the Cowboys straight up as a double-digit home dog last week.
This is a game, in my opinion, of a team that has too high of a confidence rating (the 49ers) vs. a team getting zero respect (the Cardinals). If bettors look, there have been plenty of 14.5s out there, which is getting silly in a divisional game. I mean, the Cardinals could be 3-0 if it weren’t for some late collapses vs. Washington and the Giants.
The 49ers could be without their top wide receivers, as Deebo Samuel missed Wednesday’s practice likely due to the rib injury he picked up in Week 3 that was certainly scary at first glance. Brandon Aiyuk, who missed Week 3, was limited at practice on Wednesday as well.
Receiver depth could be an issue as No.3 Jauan Jennings was also questionable mid-week.
Linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who sits third on the team in tackles, was also DNP on Wednesday. The injuries are slightly more concerning, as the team has had extended rest after playing TNF in Week 3.
The biggest injury to the Cards is with D-lineman Johnathan Ledbetter (12 tackles) who was DNP on Wednesday.
The Cardinals also need some credit for how they’ve held onto the ball. It’s not often you see 14.5-point dogs who have committed zero turnovers in two straight weeks. Dobbs has been very efficient. He’s yet to throw an interception and has amazingly done this with only a month of experience with the offense. When I’m looking for a long dog, I want one that doesn’t beat themselves and so far, that is Arizona football.
As for the total, it was 41 on the look-ahead, hit 42 on Sunday night, and has been bet up to as high as 44.5 with most books sitting at 44.
Weather-wise there is nothing standing out in this game that should warrant a move on the total. San Francisco continues to be one of the slowest-paced offenses in football with Arizona also ranking in the Bottom 10. If the San Francisco receivers can’t get healthy, I’d expect this total to fall closer to the opening 42.
The worst scenario for Over backers here is if the 49ers play with a big lead where they’ll continue to drain the clock and eat up chunks of time. The offense had the ball for 65% of the game in Week 3 and has a 57% time of possession share on the season. I have more faith in the Arizona offense than its defense, which has one of the worst success rates vs. the run. This is an Arizona defense that might be better to bet on in the first half than late in the game where it has struggled to keep points off the board.
As for usage, Conner has played 127 snaps to backup Keaontay Ingram’s 22. Brown and Zach Ertz both have target shares of at least 25%. Wilson leads the receivers with a 17-yard aDOT.
Things are murky because of the receiver injuries to the Niners. Samuel had a 35% target share last week with no Aiyuk and had 78 yards after the catch. George Kittle also saw an uptick in targets last week with a 26% target share.
